Insight Turkey

Insight Turkey

January-March 2006 (Volume 8, Number 1)

Turkey and the Lisbon process. A short research note on the 
position of Turkey on a new “Lisbon Strategy Index”

Arno Tausch  & Almas Heshmati 

The EU Heads of States and Governments agreed in Lisbon in March 2000 to make the EU "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-driven economy by 2010". Although some progress was made on innovating Europe's economy, there is growing concern that the reform process is not going fast enough and that the ambitious targets will not be reached. The detailed analysis of the dynamic and factor analytical results shows that the Lisbon progress in Turkey has been at least comparable to that of several EU-member countries. Thus “Lisbon” cannot be used to bloc the Turkish EU-membership ambitions.

 

2006 Will Provide Clues to Europe's Future
Reginald Dale & Robin Niblett

Three months into 2006, Europeans are entering a period in which they are no longer able to evade hard but vital decisions about their future. Choices made this year will indicate whether European governments are serious about economic reform, whether they can recover their sense of institutional direction and ease growing levels of social insecurity, and whether they can live up to the EU's growing geopolitical ambitions. In each area, EU members are taking important steps forward, but in each case, the outcome remains highly uncertain.


Enlargement in the evolution of the European Union
Olli Rehn

Text of the speech by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn at a p ublic lecture at the London School of Economics in London on January 20, 2006.

 

From Neighborhood to Integration Policy: 
Are there concrete alternatives to enlargement?

Eneko Landaburu

The answer to the question posed in the subtitle is yes, indeed, there are concrete alternatives to enlargement. As there must be. Enlargement has been a key tool in projecting stability across our continent. But it is a reality that the EU cannot expand ad infinitum – everything has its limits. The EU is committed to supporting reform and development in our neighborhood. Through the ENP, we will work with our neighbors to promote their reforms, improving life for their citizens, as well as our own.


The U.S.-Turkish Alliance at the Iranian Junction?
Bulent Aliriza & Seda Ciftci

Despite subsequent efforts of diplomats on both sides, whose professional forte is to downplay differences while accentuating possible points of convergence, especially with long-standing relationships, it is impossible to exaggerate the significance of the divergence on Iraq. After all, one of the allies decided rightly or wrongly to go to war and sought the assistance of the other, only to discover to its consternation that the support it expected would be denied. Nevertheless, having looked into the abyss of mutual estrangement, the two governments chose to try to minimize the damage caused by the Turkish rebuff.


The European Neighborhood Policy and the Middle East Regional 
Security Complex

Bezen Balamir Coskun

In 2003 the European Commission with the ‘Communication on Wider Europe' outlined the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) in order to demonstrate the European Union's high priority on shaping future relations with its neighbors. The objective of the ENP is to share the benefits of the enlargement with neighboring countries in strengthening stability, security and well-being for all. Within this context the ENP aims to address the EU's strategic objective of building security in the neighborhood. The ENP particularly claims to further regional integration with building on the achievements of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership to meet the objectives of the European security strategy in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.


The Iranian Nuclear Program: The NPT, the West, Iran and Turkey
Ece Aksop              

It was the Cold War which offered Iran fertile ground on which to acquire nuclear technology. In 1957, the U.S. planted the seeds of a nuclear program in Iran. However, relations between the U.S. and Iran deteriorated after the Islamic Revolution in 1980. Problems peaked with the disclosure of the Natanz and Arak facilities. This paper aims to first investigate why Iran pursues a nuclear program. It will argue that there are multiple factors such as administrative dedication, post September 11 context and public support which motivated Iran to seek nuclear weapons. This study also focuses on the situation vis-a-vis the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the EU, the U.S., Iran and Turkey.


Slide Rules: What civil war looks like
Larry Diamond

Iraq's conflict is not about ideology or class, and it is not just about nationalist resistance to the U.S. presence. At root, it is a battle of identities, a struggle not just for power and resources but for dignity and legitimacy. When old hierarchies are disrupted or groups feel threatened or violated, the quest for group security and respect easily mutates into a drive for domination, separation, vengeance, or--at its horrific worst--annihilation. Often, these conflicts are manipulated and mobilized by ethnic elites or rising ethnic challengers as a means to establish and consolidate personal power.


“Valley of the Wolves, Iraq.” Turkey's Popular Culture Reacts to the 
Unsettling Presence of the U.S. in Iraq in Film and Novels

Brian Glyn Williams

Pop culture in the surrounding regions, however, offers unique insights into the popular perceptions of American activities in Iraq, and none more so than in Turkey, a nation seemingly obsessed with the American presence next-door. Turkey, a Western-leaning secular country that is both a member of NATO and an applicant for membership in the European Union, has a vibrant and expressive pop culture that at first glance seems to emulate all things American. Thankfully, stereotypes of American GIs and Americans in general among the Westernized Turks have not, however, led to any violent anti-Americanism in Turkey. For the average Turk, America is thus a focus of conflicting feelings of admiration and a growing sense of distrust.


The Iraq Report
Gunay Evinc

I was summoned to Baghdad. As I did not want to worry my wife, I told her I was going to Turkey for a conference on the Armenian matter – which was true. But, the complete truth was that after the conference I would continue to Iraq via Istanbul Atatürk International Airport, one of the safest routes to Baghdad for civilians. Passengers go through four levels of security checks, and the pretty woman sitting next to you in the plane might be a Turkish sky marshal who can break your neck faster than you can say, “Turkish Delight.”


What the Iraqi Public Wants
WorldPublicOpinion.org

WorldPublicOpinion.org has undertaken a poll of the Iraqi people to determine their attitudes about these various developments occurring around them, and also to differentiate the views of the ethnic subgroups—Arab Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. The poll was fielded by KA Research Limited/D3 Systems, Inc. Polling was conducted January 2-5 with a nationwide sample of 1,150, which included an oversample of 150 Arab Sunnis (bringing the total of Sunnis to 421). Respondents from all of Iraq's 18 governorates were interviewed for the sample. 


Great Promise Unfulfilled:
How Russia lost its way after independence
Dmitry Gorenburg (with H.H. Gaffney)   

This paper reviews the most important events in Russian history since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It focuses on general trends in Russian development as the country underwent a triple transition to democracy, market economy, and federal state. At first, Russia hoped to quickly become part of the world community and to join the ranks of the fully developed market economies. The failure of market reforms through at least 1998 to improve living standards among the vast majority of the population, the rapid increase in crime and corruption in the country, and the waning of Russian influence in world affairs all combined to create a climate of disillusionment with the post-communist transition.


Energy Policies and Strategies:
Russia's Threat to Europe's Energy Security

Janusz Bugajski

Text of Janusz Bugajski's presentation at the Black Sea Regional Energy Conference, Bucharest, April 3-5, 2006. 


Russian Energy Strategy: Risk Assessment for Europe
Borut Grgic

In an effort to contain European political influence and economic power, Russia is relying increasingly on its energy resources and network. The Russian objective is to increase Europe's dependence on Russian energy, which gives Russia a voice on the EU's political stage. In light of the growing political color given to Russia's energy, Europe's dependency on the Russians is undermining the EU's independent political decision-making ability, as well as its energy strategy. Unless Europe begins actively pursuing alternative deliverables in terms of gas and oil to those imported from Russia, its political independence from Russia and its ability to exert pressure on Moscow in terms of human rights and democracy reforms will be severely restricted.

Delayed Gratification: 
The Evolution of Turkish Tourism Policy, 1955-2005

Evan R. Ward           

The emergence of Turkey as a global tourist destination over the last fifty years shares many characteristics in common with neighboring developing countries in the Mediterranean, including Spain and Greece – not least among them the presence of first class hotels and attractions, as noted above. What sets Turkish tourism development apart from that of its neighbors in the Mediterranean region during the past fifty years has not been solely the content of tourism developed, but also the longer period of time that transpired for Turkey to develop and implement modern tourism development policies .