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Turkey’s Strategic Conduct under the Changing International System

This article analyzes how Turkey should adjust its grand strategy under the changing international order. It claims that the international order has undergone a significant transformation that is pushing Turkey to relocate its international position. First, the article examines the characteristic features of the changing dynamics of the international system; it then sheds light on the new aspects of Turkey’s changing strategic landscape. By taking into consideration the transformation in Turkish foreign and security policy since the Arab Uprising, the article argues that Turkey needs a basis for determining what is important and what is not, what the primary threats to the nation’s interests are, and how best to serve those interests in a way that is attentive to the costs and risks it is willing to bear. Our aim in this article is to describe how Turkey can deal with the new reality of the international system and pursue and protect its important interests by developing a comprehensive grand strategy.

Turkey s Strategic Conduct under the Changing International System
Bayraktar TB2 armed unmanned aerial vehicle is displayed during TEKNOFEST 2021, in İstanbul, Turkey, on September 22, 2021. ALTAN GOCHER /  Getty Images
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

“We will not repeat the mistakes made after the Second World War and the Cold War –this time we will seize the opportunity that knocks on our country’s door.”1

         Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

 

The global system has undergone a significant transformation that is pushing Turkey to relocate its international position. It is required to have a comprehensive strategic vision to reposition Turkey in an emerging global order that is still undergoing significant change, strengthen the means to implement this vision, and produce an extensive roadmap concerning how this vision will be accomplished. In this article, we focus on how this strategic vision should take shape in the realm of foreign policy. The emerging multipolar international order both poses risks and presents opportunities, which we describe in the latter parts of this article. Turkey needs to have a grand strategy to eliminate those risks and seize the opportunities.

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