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Turkey and the West after the Failed Coup: Possible Scenarios

Western powers are the main players that determine the national and international policies of Turkey, a NATO-member and a candidate country to the EU. The converse is also true, meaning that Turkey’s domestic political developments have always had an influence over the country’s relations with the West. The July 15 coup attempt is no exception in this regard. The botched coup is, without a doubt, a turning point in Turkey’s political history. Therefore, the present article aims at conceptualizing the eventual consequences of the July 15 coup attempt for Turkish foreign policy.

Turkey and the West after the Failed Coup Possible Scenarios
Civilians standup against the coup plotters affiliated with FETÖ, who aimed to topple the democratic government in Turkey on the night of the July 15. AA PHOTO / CEM ÖZDEL
 

Foreign relations cannot be evaluated without understanding mutual interactions between states; therefore, it is impossible to discuss Turkey’s foreign policy independently of other states’ attitudes. Concordantly, one should stress that the Western states, especially those who are member of NATO and the European Union (EU), comprise the main axis that determines Turkey’s national and international policies. In other words, Turkey-West relations are the key determinant of almost all of Turkey’s policies. Thus, even as one analyzes Turkey’s stance toward the Middle East, the Caucasus or Russia, or even when its own domestic politics are studied, the U.S. and the European countries must also be referenced. In this regard, the July 15 coup attempt is no exception.

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