Antonia Colibasanu

NATO’s primary challenge in 2026 is no longer limited to deterring conventional aggression; it is managing the gray zones that increasingly define its borderlands. From the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and across the Mediterranean and the Gulf, the Alliance faces a common pattern of hybrid coercion, maritime disruption, infrastructure sabotage, drone incursions, and ambiguous escalation below the threshold of war. Although these challenges are often treated as separate regional problems, the Baltic-Black Sea corridor and the southern flank are becoming strategically interconnected theaters shaped by similar threats and vulnerabilities. The Ankara Summit should therefore prioritize a coherent borderland strategy focused on situational awareness, resilience, attribution, integrated air and maritime defense, and stronger political mechanisms for responding to gray zone pressure before it undermines deterrence and Alliance cohesion.