Barbara Slavin

The Iranian decision not to immediately retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, in part reflects a concerted effort by regional, Chinese, Russian, and Western diplomats to convince Iran that de-escalation and diplomacy was the wiser course. It also reflects recognition by the new administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian –whose inauguration preceded the Haniyeh killing by only a few hours– that such a military retaliation would likely provoke a massive Israeli response backed by the U.S. and other Western allies that would doom Iran’s chances of re-engaging with the West and relieving onerous economic sanctions. A wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah across the Israel-Lebanon border does not appear to have changed this calculus for Iran, which is confronting severe domestic economic problems and a growing gap between the regime and society. Still, any progress in improving U.S.-Iran relations will have to await the results of U.S. presidential elections.