Barış Şanlı

This article presents an analysis method for oil price movements that tries to combine different factors such as technology, economics, fear, and temporal relations, which are illustrated by fundamental indicators. Analysis method also allows the visualization of these relations with system dynamics figures. It aims to propose a set of these macro factors based on fundamental indicators to improve future forecasts. The vantage point is more of a practitioner’s reference point, since theory generally follows practice. By grouping the effects in categories, it tries to guide the reader to understand the “nuts and bolts” of oil price dynamics. While illustrating the points, practical examples are associated with the explanations. The ideas presented are categorized in an analytical manner to help the reader find his/her way. At the end of the article, the possible major events that could trigger the next oil crises are listed.

With its young population, dynamic private sector, and pivotal geographic location, Turkey is simultaneously a large energy consumer, an energy gathering and dispatching center, and an energy investor in the pan-European energy landscape. These characteristics, which make Turkey an emerging regional and global energy player, when combined with the growing gap between Turkey’s energy supply and demand, necessitate a new, comprehensive, long-term energy strategy (preferably out to 2030 or later) in which the end policy goals are clearly defined, and the ways and means to achieve those goals are described in a comprehensive and coherent manner. This article discusses the basics of formulating such a strategy. It argues that such a strategy must focus on ensuring long term energy supply at affordable costs to consumers, on Turkey’s geopolitical role in terms of regional and global energy concerns, and on fair competition and environmental challenges.