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The Emerging Multipolarity and Implications of (Dis)Engagement of the U.S. Foreign Policy in the Western Balkans

Since the end of the Cold War, the Western orientation of the Balkans has been an important topic for the U.S. However, the region has ceased to be a priority object for the U.S. foreign policy since the early 2000s and the 2008 economic crisis led the EU to downgrade its enlargement agenda creating a vacuum that enabled the non-Western actors, notably Russia and China to extend their influence over the region. This study offers a comparative and multi-actor analysis combining the regional developments with systemic-level shifts. It aims to examine the rise of multipolarity and the reflections of geopolitical competition in the Western Balkans in the post-Cold War era. It argues that despite the reduced U.S. involvement, the American engagement still remains crucial for the regional stability. Given the EU’s weakening role, this article contributes to the literature by analyzing how the great power rivalry among the U.S., Russia, and China shapes the stability in the Western Balkans with a particular attention to the developments in BIH and Kosovo.

The Emerging Multipolarity and Implications of Dis Engagement of the
 

 

Introduction*

In the 1990s, during the unipolar era of international politics, any development in any part of the world could directly or indirectly become a matter of concern for the American foreign policy. In this respect, the Westernization of political-economic systems and diplomatic orientation of the Balkan countries1 was of great importance to Washington.2 After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Balkan countries that had long remained under the Soviet shadow except Greece and Türkiye turned their attention to the West and expressed their desire to join the model offered by the European Union (EU). Thus, the 1990s mark the beginning of the Balkan countries’ efforts toward Westernization in line with their aspirations for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and EU membership.

 

The EU introduced the term “Western Balkans” at the Vienna European Council in 1998 to distinguish a group of states from other Balkan and South-Eastern European countries that had progressed more rapidly toward EU membership, as well as from Greece, an EU member since 1981. While Croatia was initially included in this category, it was removed following its accession to the EU in 2013. The term now refers to six countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.3 Although the region is undergoing a multifaceted reform process as part of the EU integration, serious challenges exist including corruption, organized crime, issues of transitional justice, socio-economic development problems, democratic deficits and ethnic tensions.4 In fact, there are still unresolved matters within the region in the political, economic, social and legal spheres, which open the door for a growing impact of the non-Western actors.

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