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Unveiling the Türkiye-GCC Economic Partnership: ARDL Cointegration Approach

This analysis examines the economic relationship between Türkiye and the GCC countries, focusing notably on the economic and trade ties. It argues that while mutual relations have increased during the AK Party era, historical commercial relations have been subject to fluctuations due to regional and foreign policy preferences. Descriptive analysis using secondary data supports this claim. Cointegration techniques are also employed to empirically analyze the trade relationship between the two sides from 1994 to 2020. The results indicate long-term cointegration in Türkiye-GCC economic relations, with bilateral trade positively affected in the long-term. However, the findings also suggest that as GCC countries’ exports to Türkiye increase, Türkiye’s exports to the GCC increase even more over the long-term.

Unveiling the Türkiye-GCC Economic Partnership ARDL Cointegration Approach
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have become critical players in the global financial markets thanks to large natural resources revenues. Among these nations, Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand out as the most influential in terms of economic and financial factors. However, Qatar and Kuwait have also become notable players, particularly through their investments abroad. Moreover, Qatar holds a unique position thanks to its abundant gas reserves and its role as a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This has not only bolstered Qatar’s economy but also enhanced its standing in the global energy market. Kuwait, on the other hand, has strategically invested its considerable wealth in various sectors internationally, further solidifying its economic influence. Bahrain and Oman have a more moderate economy compared to other GCC countries. However, they have recently been developing economic policies as part of their national vision, including economic diversification. In Oman, the agriculture and halal tourism sectors are the most important in this regard, while in Bahrain, the financial sector plays a dominant role.

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