Introduction
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, rapidly transcended its domestic boundaries to evolve into a decade-long conflict dynamic characterized by intertwined regional and global proxy wars. This transformation has fundamentally reshaped not only Syria’s internal political structure but also the balance of power and the regional security architecture of the Middle East.1 Within the existing literature, two dominant explanations regarding the Syrian civil war stand out. The first approach examines the conflict through the axis of geopolitical competition and proxy wars, viewing the intervention of external actors as the decisive factor,2 the second approach focuses on sectarian and ethnic identity-based fragmentations, particularly along the Sunni-Alawite/Nusayri axis.3
While these approaches offer significant contributions to explaining certain dimensions of the conflict, they remain limited in providing a holistic explanation for its self-reproducing mechanism and persistence. Edward Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict (PSC) theory, however, offers a more integrated framework. Azar argues that such conflicts are not merely struggles for military power; rather, they are rooted in structural issues such as the failure to meet basic human needs, identity-based exclusion, and a crisis of state legitimacy. In fragmented societies, the systematic exclusion of specific identity groups and injustice in the distribution of resources prevent the establishment of inclusive legitimacy. Furthermore, external linkages can reignite and escalate tensions even when a potential for internal resolution emerges.
