Katerina Dalacoura

This paper traces the changes to the domestic politics of Arab states following the 2011 uprisings and places them in a continuum depending on the degree of internal conflict and contestation they have engendered. It also outlines the uprisings’ effects on the three strands of Islamism-radical, Salafi and moderate-across the Middle East. The paper’s main purpose is to assess the uprisings’ impact on the confrontation between the Iranian-led and pro-Western camps. It argues that ideological and sectarian considerations in the post-2011 Middle East subtly interact with but tend to be trumped by the realpolitik calculations of the various players, which are defined by regime and state interests.