Mustafa Caner

The nearly 50-year-long tension between the United States and Iran has culminated in a broad, high-intensity conflict. The visible dynamics that have escalated this tension into a kinetic confrontation include Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as its ties to proxy groups. Nonetheless, many analysts argue that the war has been triggered and propelled by Israel’s manipulation and provocation. Iran’s resilient response calls into question the strategic calculations of one of the largest and most lethal military mobilizations. This study examines the actions of the warring parties, their tactical and strategic calculations, and their intended objectives, while also assessing the likely outcome of the conflict. The analysis contends that, despite achieving certain short-term tactical gains, the U.S.-Israeli side has failed to establish a coherent strategic plan or attain its political objectives. Observations indicate that miscalculations by the U.S. and Israel have propagated costs across the entire region. Finally, the study emphasizes that the regional balance and dynamics will not remain unchanged after this war, especially considering the profound transformative potential accompanying the transition of Iran’s supreme leader.

On October 7, the Middle East witnessed a dramatic shift that reshaped geopolitical and security dynamics. Iran's central role in this transformation has not been limited to influencing the Israel-Palestine conflict but has also produced significant implications for regional stability and global power competition. While Iran denied its organizational role in Hamas's Operation al-Aqsa Flood, Tehran's “forward defense” approach has facilitated a new dynamic of wearing down Israel through its regional armed partners while avoiding direct confrontation. This dynamic has created the risk of direct conflict and even war between Iran and Israel. Categorically avoiding the option of war, Iran has made strategic use of regional diplomacy, particularly its rapprochement with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's domestic challenges, anticipated policy shifts in the U.S. under Trump, and regional rivalries complicate Tehran's position. This commentary examines Iran's policy toward Israel from historical, strategic, and contemporary perspectives. It explores the strategic calculations and balancing actions and mechanisms implemented by Iran in the post-October 7 period to avoid a full-scale war in the region.

The three works examined here deal with Iran’s interaction with the international system from a historical perspective and across many dimensions. While the structural and cyclical problems and opportunities between Iran and the international system are conveyed to the reader, analytical and theoretical dimensions are not ignored. However, the three works, due to their publication time, do not include recent developments that have turned the world system upside down ‒the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the rise of China seem to have opened the door to a multi-polar world. The effects of new developments such as advances in technology, digital diplomacy, and the Metaverse on the international system are still at the level of speculation, and Iran will take steps to adapt to this new reality. The emerging, multi-polar world will also increase Iran’s maneuverability. The new international order will open up the normative sources of Iran’s foreign policy; its structure, which is determined by factional dynamics; and its geopolitical imaginations to the discussion. There is a huge gap in the literature in this regard, and new studies are needed to fill it.