Vişne Korkmaz 

A debate emerged after the 12 Day War between Iran and Israel and the U.S. Operation Midnight Hammer targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. The key issue is whether Washington significantly damaged Iran’s nuclear capacity and how long recovery to pre-war levels would take. Another question is whether these strikes will deter nuclear proliferation or instead encourage covert programs like North Korea’s. These uncertainties persist as the Trump Administration signals possible further action. Answering them is crucial for the credibility of the NPT regime and U.S. security guarantees in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. This paper evaluates whether the region is becoming proliferation-oriented and why Iran halted the AMAD Plan. According to the authors of this paper, Iran’s forward defense strategy has been restrained considerably and its threshold deterrence strategy was shown to be ineffective against Israel and the U.S. -via the 12 Day War. According to this paper the U.S. decision to join 12 Day War by itself reflects the U.S. preference not to permit even threshold/enrichment proliferation in the Middle East.

As a continuation of the 1st Panel held on March 26, Insight Turkey held a second panel entitled the "New Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean" . The panelists discussed the Eastern Mediterranean issue from different perspectives. The panel, which was held online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, was broadcast live on YouTube and other social media platforms.

The new Cold War has arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean. At the strategic level, Chinese economic and Russian military assertiveness have led the U.S. to think twice about its mistakes, which opened up a power vacuum in this strategic geopolitical realm. Until today, the U.S. has seemed to use three axes of alliances that have emerged as Israeli-based, flexible, and benefit-oriented alignments at the level of regional rivalry. These alignments, especially in the context of the Abraham Accords, are unfortunately expected to reinforce pre-existing divisions in the region unless a radical change occurs. This study examines how and why Washington must embrace the logic of alliance axes to shape the Eastern Mediterranean and explores the projected impact of the U.S.-initiated Abraham Accords on regional geopolitics.