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Is a New Opening Possible in Türkiye-EU Relations?

Türkiye’s positive relations with the European Union (EU) in the early 2000s and its enthusiasm for the membership process started to weaken after 2006-2008. The downward spiral in Turkish-EU relations intensified after the failed July 15 coup attempt in Türkiye. Despite the joint strategic interests in many regional issues, including the Black Sea, the MENA Region, the Balkans, security in the Eastern Mediterranean, hydrocarbon projects, the fight against irregular migration, creating the middle corridor with Asia, European energy security, and counter-terror measures, parties can hardly find opportunities to cooperate, frankly. The way those issues of joint interest are managed shall play a crucial role in the future of Turkish-EU relations. The positive atmosphere that emerged after the May 2023 elections could potentially generate more constructive momentum in Türkiye’s relations with the European Union and the U.S. There are, however, some hurdles that should be overcome by building mutual confidence by working on shared agendas.

Is a New Opening Possible in Türkiye-EU Relations
 

 

 

 

Many foreign policy analysts referred to Türkiye’s May 14 and 28, 2023 general elections as the most important elections of 2023. Experts, journalists, politicians, and communities from across the world, starting with the West, followed the election very closely, and it resulted in yet another victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the People’s Alliance, and the AK Party. President Erdoğan’s re-election was considered an unexpected development in Europe and many Western countries. That surprise stemmed from the fact that decision-makers and the public opinion in Türkiye and the West were misled or misinformed by “experts” and “pollsters.” Having been caught by surprise in the presidential election’s first round, local and foreign circles concluded that Erdoğan would win the second round by a comfortable margin. Accordingly, we witnessed a barrage of congratulatory messages as soon as Erdoğan’s victory became a certainty.

Erdoğan missing the first-round victory by a tiny margin and his ability to clinch re-election despite facing a broad coalition of rivals earned the respect of international observers. It is important to recall that many Western analysts had speculated that the Turkish president would not consent to a peaceful transfer of power if he were to lose. Yet the election took place in a transparent and peaceful manner. The calm that was witnessed during and after that election served to bust negative myths about Türkiye and President Erdoğan. At the same time, the West’s democratic reservations about strengthening its relations with Türkiye and negative perception of Erdoğan’s personality weakened due to the Turkish leader’s post-election statements and the professionalism of his new cabinet.

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