The Cyprus Conflict: A Case for ‘Joint Decision Trap’

 

 

 

Introduction

 

The Cyprus conflict has been the key deadlock of the Türkiye-European Union (EU) relations. Since the accession of the Greek Cypriot administration to the EU in 2004, Türkiye’s strategy has undergone a deep change. This was in response to the EU strategy to require Türkiye to commit itself to good neighborly relations, international agreements, and the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the UN Charter.¹ The UN-led peace negotiations in Cyprus have been revolving around forming a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation based on the political equality of Greek and Turkish Cypriots.² In fact, the Greek Cypriots’ aim of rebuilding a ‘unitary state’ has conflicted with this framework. Since 2007, the conflict in the island became more complex as the Greek Cypriot side signed Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) delimitation agreements with Egypt, Lebanon, and Israel.³ In response to the Greek Cypriot efforts to form a quasi-alliance with regional countries including Egypt and Israel, Türkiye underlined its guarantor power emanating from the founding treaties of the Cyprus Republic in 1960.⁴ Delineating its maritime zones with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Türkiye granted the Turkish National Gas Company (Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı, TPAO) an exploration license in areas colliding with the Greek Cypriot EEZ.⁵ Noble Energy, licensed to operate in the area, announced in late 2011 that the discovery of the Aphrodite gas field located at the exploratory drilling block 12 of the Cypriot EEZ was believed to hold approximately 4.1 trillion cubic feet of gas.⁶ This discovery and the UN pressure encouraged the sides to concentrate on convergences, conducing two proposals regarding any possible cooperation in the hydrocarbons issue.⁷ This brought the Joint Declaration of February 2014.⁸ However, as of February 2019, the relations between Southern Cyprus and Türkiye again deteriorated as ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum announced encouraging results in the South of the island.⁹