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The 4th Industrial Revolution, Military-Civil Fusion, and the Next RMA

The technologies embedded in the emerging 4th industrial revolution (4IR) –and artificial intelligence (AI) in particular– promise to constitute a disruptive paradigm shift in the future nature and conduct of warfare. These technologies will likely also have a major impact on the competitions between great powers, countries that aspire to be leading regional players or nations that see technology as a critical force multiplier. It is important to understand what new and emerging critical technologies are challenging the traditional warfighting paradigm and how militaries might access and leverage these innovations. This entails an examination of the potential military-technical impact of technologies embedded in the 4IR, as well as the means –generally described as ‘military-civil fusion’– for exploiting those technologies for military capability and advantage.

The 4th Industrial Revolution Military-Civil Fusion and the Next RMA
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

Michael Raska notes that there have been five major waves of military innovation –that is, Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) – since the late 1980s. These are: first, the initial theorizing and development of the concept of a Military-Technical Revolution (MTR) in the Soviet Union, based on “reconnaissance-strike complexes” (1980s); second, the study and refinement of MTR concepts by the U.S. military (early 1990s); third, the development of the Information Technologies-led RMA (IT-RMA) in the U.S. military (mid-to-late-1990s); fourth, limited implementation of the IT-RMA under the guise of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s “defense transformation” efforts (early 2000s); and, fifth, a growing questioning of the overall RMA concept (mid-2000s onward).1

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