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Current State of the Eastern Mediterranean Energy: A SWOT Analysis of Israel’s Role

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the Eastern Mediterranean region has been the scene of important political conflicts. The discovery of natural gas, which gained momentum after 2000, further intensified these rivalries and reshaped the regional landscape. However, due to ongoing disputes and uncertainties regarding maritime jurisdiction in the Mediterranean Sea, the extraction of existing and potential reserves has led to new areas of contention among the involved countries. In a context where cooperation is essential to resolving maritime jurisdiction issues, these countries are compelled to revise their policies. As a key player in the region, Israel closely follows all developments in the Mediterranean. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of Israel’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation, examining its policies, partnerships, and initiatives through SWOT analysis. It also focuses on the developments following Tel Aviv’s renewed war on Gaza, launched after October 7, 2023, revealing that Israel’s potential future role in the field of energy faces significant challenges, closely linked to the country’s regional policies.

Current State of the Eastern Mediterranean Energy A SWOT Analysis
 

Introduction

 

Interest in the estimated 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil in the Eastern Mediterranean basin1 has resonated significantly on both regional and global scales. The gas reserves, believed to have the potential to provide geopolitical and geo-economic advantages, have caused states in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond to reevaluate their strategic calculations and perspectives. With the prospect of major connectivity and energy projects transforming the geo-economics of the Eastern Mediterranean, countries in the region are maneuvering to position themselves as a nodal point in potential corridors linking Asia and Europe. For any interested party, the least desirable outcome is to be left out of the equation. Currently, Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), Exxon Mobil, Nobel, Total, Eni, Kogas, Qatar Petroleum, British Gas, and the Israeli companies Delek and Avner are working hard to snag a role in the Mediterranean. Adding to the complexity, non-regional actors, such as the U.S., Russia, and the UK, are also trying to be part of the developments. In this context, it is relevant to examine whether energy discoveries and objectives promote the hoped-for transformative regional cooperation for local and external actors. The presence of ongoing geopolitical rivalries and historical antagonisms in the region makes this assessment even more valuable. Indeed, to make predictions about the region's future, it is essential to reveal whether these factors contribute positively or negatively to this exciting process. By identifying their own strengths and weaknesses as well as external opportunities and challenges, the article employs SWOT analysis as a method of situation analysis based on internal and external competitive environment and conditions.2 The analysis aims to clearly explain the external strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of Israel’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean energy resources.

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