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Turkey’s Grand Strategy and the Great Powers

How compatible is Turkey’s grand strategy with the grand strategies of global great powers? This article briefly summarizes principles of Turkish grand strategy, both from a descriptive and normative point of view, and then proceeds to outline and compare the grand strategies of five great powers that are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). While there are some observable conflicts between Turkey and the French, Russian, and American proxies in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, there are no outstanding militarized conflicts between Turkey and the British proxies. China is also positioned against Turkey in several international conflicts including Syria, and the intense persecution of Turkic Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang adds another dimension of latent Chinese-Turkish conflicts. The article provisionally concludes that the Turkish grand strategy seems to be most compatible, or least incompatible, with the British grand strategy, followed by the U.S. grand strategy, among the five permanent members of the UNSC, whereas Turkish and French and especially Russian grand strategies seem particularly incompatible.

Turkey s Grand Strategy and the Great Powers
President of Turkey Erdoğan attended the 74th UN General Assembly Meeting and spoke on the competing vision of Turkey’s alliances under the slogan, “The World Is Bigger than Five,” in New York, on September 24, 2019. ERÇİN TOP / AA
 

 

 

 

Introduction: Compatible and Incompatible Visions of Grand Strategy

 

Scholarly debates on Turkey’s grand strategy have finally begun. A special issue on Turkey’s grand strategy published by the academic periodical of Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2020, which includes five different grand strategic proposals,1 followed by other academic articles and op-eds discussing different aspects of Turkey’s grand strategy from descriptive and normative vantage points, and the TRT World Forum 2021 devoted to the theme of “Power and Paradox: Understanding Grand Strategy in the 21st Century,”2 are indicative of the rapidly rising interest on this subject. Despite this recent scholarly efflorescence, comparative analyses of grand strategies that include Turkey are still very rare. Moreover, to the best of my knowledge, there is not a single study of the compatibility of Turkish grand strategy and the grand strategies of multiple great powers. This article attempts to address this lacuna by reviewing the grand strategies of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with an eye to gauging their degree of compatibility or incompatibility with Turkey’s grand strategic priorities.

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