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A Comparative Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy on the Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflicts (1988-2020)

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relative stability that prevailed in the Caucasus region during the Cold War period dissolved into instability and conflicts. This article is based on a comparative analysis of Turkish foreign policy in the context of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts. During the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, Türkiye gave political and military support to Azerbaijan, but this support was not sufficient to change the course of the conflict. Türkiye showed an ardent interest in playing a mediator role. However, its mediator role was limited due to domestic and external circumstances. During the Nakhchivan conflict, Turkish policymakers brought up the possibility of interfering militarily to end the conflict in line with Türkiye’s legal commitments. However, Türkiye’s pro-Azerbaijani position took the form of discursive reactions and border militarization. When the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War erupted in 2020, Türkiye played a much more assertive role to the point of actively contributing to tilting the balance in favor of Azerbaijan. This article compares Türkiye’s position on the Azerbajani-Armenian conflicts and discusses its impacts and implications in the context of the regional dynamics.

A Comparative Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy on the Azerbaijan-Armenia
 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

After a brief overview of independence following First World War, Azerbaijan and Armenia became Soviet republics from 1922 until 1991. The Soviet Union’s territorial policies created the background condition of the ethnic conflict between both countries.1 With the 1921 Treaty of Moscow, Nakhchivan, which consisted of an Azerbaijani majority, was declared an autonomous region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic. With this treaty, the Soviet Union and Türkiye assumed guarantor roles in the protection of the territorial integrity of Nakhchivan.2 The status of Nakhchivan as an autonomous region under the protection of Azerbaijan as well as guarantor countries was confirmed in the 1921 Treaty of Kars signed between Türkiye, Azerbaijan Armenia, and Georgia.3 Nakhchivan became an exclave after it was removed from Azerbaijan’s borders following the transfer of Zangezur to the Armenian Soviet Republic in 1921.4

The status of Nagorno-Karabakh was a debated issue within the Soviet leadership in the 1920s. Soviet authorities weighed in on the strong economic relationship between Karabakh and Azerbaijan and the benefits of having good diplomatic relations with Türkiye.5 They recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an inseparable part of Azerbaijan. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was created as part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.6 The Nagorno-Karabakh region (which consisted of a Karabakh Armenian majority) was created inside Azerbaijan in 1923. Even though an Armenian party elite was attributed the right to administer the region, they were not able to practice real autonomy.7

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