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Defying Small-State Orthodoxy: The UAE’s Outlier Trajectory toward Middle-Power Status

By analyzing the three works above, this article argues that the United Arab Emirates’ post-2011 transformation cannot be explained within the behavioral boundaries traditionally assigned to small states. Rather than conforming to the passivity, risk aversion, or alliance dependency that the small-state literature prescribes, the UAE has demonstrated a sustained pattern of strategic autonomy, assertive interventionism, and identity-driven statecraft.

Defying Small-State Orthodoxy The UAE s Outlier Trajectory toward Middle-Power
GCC
 

New Order in the Gulf: The Rise of the UAE

 

By Dina Esfandiary

London: I.B. Tauris (Bloomsbury), 2023, 200 pages, £17.99, ISBN: 9780755645794

 

The UAE After the Arab Spring: Strategy for Survival

 

By Khalifa Al-Suwaidi

London: I.B. Tauris (Bloomsbury), 2023, 222 pages, £26.09, ISBN: 9780755648030

 

Smart Instead of Small in International Relations Theory: The Case of the United Arab Emirates

 

By Spyridon N. Litsas

Cham: Springer, 2023, 203 pages, €22.38, ISBN: 9783031446382

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

The political landscape of the Middle East underwent a reconfiguration in the 2010s, as traditional centers of regional influence, such as Egypt, Iraq, and Syria, weakened, and new actors in the Gulf region, characterized by domestic stability, economic dynamism, and an increasingly assertive foreign policy posture, began to emerge. Among these emerging players, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stands out as a remarkable and significant example. In this sense, the UAE case is critical because it exemplifies the transformation of a small state into a middle power, demonstrating how strategic capacity, wealth, and proactive foreign policy can extend the traditional limits of small-state behavior. Alongside other emerging actors, such as Qatar, and more traditional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE stands out as an outlier, revealing both how far a small state can advance and where the structural limits of a small-state power ultimately remain.

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